Establishment and Verification of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Hip Fracture in Osteoporotic Population Based on Blood Biochemical Indicators and Hip Bone Characteristics

Abstract

Objective: It is to identify risk factors for hip fractures in osteoporotic patients, and based on these risk factors, a nomogram for predicting the risk of hip fractures in osteoporotic populations was established and validated. Methods: From the Donghua database of the Affiliated Hospital of Chengde Medical College, the general information and data of osteoporosis patients with a clear history of trauma who underwent double hip joint anteroposterior examination and blood biochemical examination from June 2019 to June 2020 were collected and screened. The clinical data were randomly divided into a training group and a verification group by R software. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the independent risk factors of hip fracture risk in the osteoporotic population, and a nomogram was established according to the independent risk factors. Then verification of it was conducted. Results: Of the 398 researchers studied, 258 (64.8%) were diagnosed with hip fractures, with the independent risk factors of age, serum calcium concentration, average femoral neck length, femoral shaft average diameter, and femoral average cortical thickness for HF in OP patients. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram for predicting HF in OP patients was 0.998 and 0.990 in the training group and validation group, respectively. The calibration curve reflects the good consistency between the prediction results and the model, and the clinical decision-making. The curve reflects the higher clinical value of the nomogram. Conclusion: The nomogram established according to the independent risk factors of patients could accurately predict the risk of HF in OP patients. Clinicians can use this model to provide evidence for individualized diagnosis and treatment of patients and improving treatment plans.